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  1. cvalue13

    The Limiting Factor - 2023-Q3 Batteries: State of Play

    but if observations are at odds with your deductions, then it means your deductions are flawed the relevant observations: they aren’t putting out a 5XX (or 4XX) CT work backwards from *that* not forwards from a hypothesis or, just wait until Nov 30
  2. cvalue13

    The Limiting Factor - 2023-Q3 Batteries: State of Play

    how can you possibly run those calculations without making some assumption about how many cells can fit in a truck? Also, 600 units/wk amounts to an annual production of 30,000 trucks total. and separately, even on your math (if I understand it), they could build 600/wk of 500mi versions...
  3. cvalue13

    Can't Tesla fund their own loans? (high interest, demand impact, etc)

    Musk answered this question at investor day this year. Auto manufacturers can’t play bank without becoming a bank. That’s the point of of regulations work: they don’t care if you call yourself a ā€˜bank,’ they care if you behave like one. Existing OEM financing companies exist, but are...
  4. cvalue13

    Tesla is selling superchargers to BP

    BP getting that gubment $$ (Tesla indirect fractional beneficiary) BP’s got a bunch of large-scale interstate truck stop locations with space, prime for that gubment $ redpill: government subsidies doing as intended bluepill: entitlement spending to big oil
  5. cvalue13

    Driving ranges investigation

    Back in July, there was a Reuters investigation piece with these allegations. The OP info regards a more recent DOJ investigation into these and other allegations, including benefits to Tesla execs, compliance with the 2018 court orders from Tesla’s settlement, and claims about FSD and AP. The...
  6. cvalue13

    ??Q3 2023 Results Livestream ? -- Complete!! (Recap inside)

    don’t confuse run rate with actual production in a calendar year he said they would not reach a run rate of 250K until within 2025 and that they don’t expect to exceed a run rate of 125k within 2024 (eg a max of 2,400/wk run rate) which means, generally, they will produce less than 125k...
  7. cvalue13

    ??Q3 2023 Results Livestream ? -- Complete!! (Recap inside)

    the CT roll out could be pretty different in terms of that timing lag - trending much shorter still, not *that* many retail units flooding even after initial retail deliveries begin, for some time and folks should note with seriousness the deck's ">125K" capacity notation (and compare it to...
  8. cvalue13

    ??Q3 2023 Results Livestream ? -- Complete!! (Recap inside)

    Since it's in the deck, we'll be sure to hear a bit more during the call. Two key questions: (1) finding clarity that November 30 is the 'handover' or 'internal deliveries' type event, basically of MCs to insider employees and VIPs, vs *retail deliveries* - I'd assume this is the intended Nov...
  9. cvalue13

    ??Q3 2023 Results Livestream ? -- Complete!! (Recap inside)

    Prior to this Q3 investor call, I thought it would be helpful to have these exact quotes on hand from 2023's communications to investors. Underlined emphasis on those pieces relevant to handover event timing. Note how, in retrospect, so many comments RE Cybertruck are tied to hip of 4680 ramp...
  10. cvalue13

    ??Q3 2023 Results Livestream ? -- Complete!! (Recap inside)

    traditionally, I'd think it would be a last resort venue to announce a CT delivery event date because traditionally, you'd make a big customer-facing marketing announcement such as that in the days leading up to the investor call, so that the buzz had time to disseminate prior to discussing...
  11. cvalue13

    ??Q3 2023 Results Livestream ? -- Complete!! (Recap inside)

    maybe I’m just missing why it’s a great question because to me it seems patently obvious the answer is a simple ā€œno, next questionā€ the notion that Optimus could be (meaningfully) deployed in a gigafactory in the next 14 months seems asinine to me but maybe I’m the problem
  12. cvalue13

    ??Q3 2023 Results Livestream ? -- Complete!! (Recap inside)

    I think the question is framed this way because it’s the framing that is relevant to stock performance and annual P&L when exactly deliveries start is more relevant to people champing at the bit for their individual CyberTruck
  13. cvalue13

    ??Q3 2023 Results Livestream ? -- Complete!! (Recap inside)

    sure but the question is if Optimus will be able irking gigafactories next year
  14. cvalue13

    ??Q3 2023 Results Livestream ? -- Complete!! (Recap inside)

    At this point, I think he’ll be compelled to discuss insider delivery timing, etc., to a greater degree than normal. technically, nothing to back-pedal or explain because in the Q2 he said ā€œbefore end of the yearā€ But there’ll pressure to explain how there’s not any material problem causing...
  15. cvalue13

    GFTX New Entrance - Inspired by QC Light Tunnels Inspection Systems?

    obviously not too obvious, at least to me ? funny choice, for a place that doesn’t build any Plaid? maybe it’s the thought that counts
  16. cvalue13

    GFTX New Entrance - Inspired by QC Light Tunnels Inspection Systems?

    maybe so but I'd *think* the engineers at Tesla could solve for this very basic problem - the right sort of ramp fixes it but, if they don't plan to put vehicles there, it becomes a strange feature to have in the front of the building - the obviously don't expect it to be a walkway
  17. cvalue13

    GFTX New Entrance - Inspired by QC Light Tunnels Inspection Systems?

    This has been rattling around in my head for several weeks, having back then seen the new GFTX entrance design from flyovers by Joe, as well as images shared by Musk. Maybe this has been obvious to others, and I simply haven't seen it mentioned (because it's so obvious?), but to...
  18. cvalue13

    Want a Cybertruck Teardown? Here's How You Can Help - Munro

    interesting take if it’s true that no manufacturer wants to pay for a CT tear down report (which as I remember it costs ~6 figures), then I suppose if fans want to pay for it… on the other hand, if fans pay for the CT then later a manufacture (or 10) come along and pay for the CT report… he...
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