Ron Baron: Robotaxi service could add 30-50 Billion dollars profit per year for Tesla

[PATEL]

Ron Baron about Tesla: "If you do 50,000 miles a year for a car (Robotaxi) those cars generate ... 30, or 40 or 50,000 Dollars in profits per year. Per car. So every time you have a million cars you adding 30, or 40 or 50 Billion Dollar to profits per year."

 

[HaulingAss]

Ron Baron about Tesla: "If you do 50,000 miles a year for a car (Robotaxi) those cars generate ... 30, or 40 or 50,000 Dollars in profits per year. Per car. So every time you have a million cars you adding 30, or 40 or 50 Billion Dollar to profits per year."

Ron's right, this is the biggest story the financial media is missing. It's incredibly cheap to keep a Tesla on the road, especially their new robocab that is designed for the purpose. And with low fares, ride hailing is about to explode. How the financial media can be so stupid and so blind is beyond me. I just know that they rarely look past the next quarter or the next year. TSLA will runup in price before they notice what is about to happen. They are always chasing the tail of the tiger, never pointing their viewers and readers towards the golden goose. Which is presumably what they are supossed to be doing. But they never do it until it's already happened.

 

[CyberLucky]

Uber makes about $5,600 per car for their cut, which is between 25% and 30%, so using the more conservative 30% figure that's a total of about $19,000 gross per car. Uber has 8 million cars globally.

If Tesla charges half as much they'll gross about $10,000 per car. If they get 1 million cars in the Robotaxi fleet, they'll gross about $10 billion. Most of that will be profit.

Of course, the cars can stay on the road much longer than any Uber, and if they lower the cost to customer by half the total addressable market will probably increase substantially, so my calculations are conservative.

 

[HaulingAss]

Uber makes about $5,600 per car for their cut, which is between 25% and 30%, so using the more conservative 30% figure that's a total of about $19,000 gross per car. Uber has 8 million cars globally.

If Tesla charges half as much they'll gross about $10,000 per car. If they get 1 million cars in the Robotaxi fleet, they'll gross about $10 billion. Most of that will be profit.

Of course, the cars can stay on the road much longer than any Uber, and if they lower the cost to customer by half the total addressable market will probably increase substantially, so my calculations are conservative.

Tesla will have two kinds of cars in the robotaxi fleet, owner operated and Tesla owned. I believe Ron Baron was only crunching the numbers of cars owned/operated by Tesla. So Tesla gets 100% of the revenue. He was pointing out that Tesla will make much higher profits operating their cars as robo-taxis than they will selling them to new car buyers.

I can see a scenario that could last for a few years where Tesla doesn't want to sell their production to the public, they would rather add them directly to their robotaxi fleet. This could make it difficult to buy a new Tesla, at least not without paying a significant premium over today's prices, which would push up the price of used Tesla too.

 

[CyberLucky]

Tesla will have two kinds of cars in the robotaxi fleet, owner operated and Tesla owned. I believe Ron Baron was only crunching the numbers of cars owned/operated by Tesla. So Tesla gets 100% of the revenue. He was pointing out that Tesla will make much higher profits operating their cars as robo-taxis than they will selling them to new car buyers.

I can see a scenario that could last for a few years where Tesla doesn't want to sell their production to the public, they would rather add them directly to their robotaxi fleet. This could make it difficult to buy a new Tesla, at least not without paying a significant premium over today's prices, which would push up the price of used Tesla too.

Yes: medium to long term, car ownership won't be a thing, and selling cars for low margin to individual owners won't make sense for anyone concerned when you can have a much cheaper cost per mile and much safer and better experience with an on-demand vehicle.

It's probably a winner-take-most (and maybe all) situation because it will be hard for competitors to accumulate sufficient data to catch up, as people slow car purchases and capital moves to Tesla because of substantially better margins. It's very hard for me to see anyone catching up at this point.

The period during which owners can add their vehicles to the fleet will likely be very short lived, I think: long enough to ensure the service scales rapidly, but owners will be out-competed by company cars that take all the revenue and therefore enjoy a lower operating cost and proliferate quickly into areas served by owners.

 

[shopaholic]

“”A Miami federal jury ordered Tesla to pay $329 million in damages for a 2019 fatal crash involving its Autopilot driver-assistance system, marking the first time the company has been held liable for its semi-autonomous technology in federal court.
• The crash killed 22-year-old Naibel Benavides Leon and severely injured her boyfriend Dillon Angulo when driver George McGee’s Model S ran through a stop sign at over 60 mph in Key Largo, Florida, after McGee became distracted by his cellphone while relying on Autopilot.
• The jury assigned Tesla one-third of the blame and the distracted driver two-thirds responsibility, after finding that Tesla’s technology failed to prevent the collision and that the company could not shift all blame to the human driver.””

This is not good news for Tesla or FSD. Realise improvements since 2019, but these runaway jury awards will bankrupt even large companies

 

[tingmo13]

“”A Miami federal jury ordered Tesla to pay $329 million in damages for a 2019 fatal crash involving its Autopilot driver-assistance system, marking the first time the company has been held liable for its semi-autonomous technology in federal court.
• The crash killed 22-year-old Naibel Benavides Leon and severely injured her boyfriend Dillon Angulo when driver George McGee’s Model S ran through a stop sign at over 60 mph in Key Largo, Florida, after McGee became distracted by his cellphone while relying on Autopilot.
• The jury assigned Tesla one-third of the blame and the distracted driver two-thirds responsibility, after finding that Tesla’s technology failed to prevent the collision and that the company could not shift all blame to the human driver.””

This is not good news for Tesla or FSD. Realise improvements since 2019, but these runaway jury awards will bankrupt even large companies

the guy dropped the phone and try to pick it up. How many accidents are caused by Phone distraction? Can Apple, Samsung etc are to blame?
It's not the Product but the Person-so, FSD/AVs will remove the human and free up & save so much. Meanwhile, make T$LA holders Muy Rico

 

[doggod]

“”A Miami federal jury ordered Tesla to pay $329 million in damages for a 2019 fatal crash involving its Autopilot driver-assistance system, marking the first time the company has been held liable for its semi-autonomous technology in federal court.
• The crash killed 22-year-old Naibel Benavides Leon and severely injured her boyfriend Dillon Angulo when driver George McGee’s Model S ran through a stop sign at over 60 mph in Key Largo, Florida, after McGee became distracted by his cellphone while relying on Autopilot.
• The jury assigned Tesla one-third of the blame and the distracted driver two-thirds responsibility, after finding that Tesla’s technology failed to prevent the collision and that the company could not shift all blame to the human driver.””

This is not good news for Tesla or FSD. Realise improvements since 2019, but these runaway jury awards will bankrupt even large companies

that was 6 years ago software and different hardware so does not relate to new FSD versions